🔗 Share this article

"I will be positioned in this position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, noting that if the conversation proceeded smoothly, he might invite the interviewer into Downing Street for another talk next year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever downtime for leaders. Shortly before the interview began, the PM had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand exactly what had occurred in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was much longer than typical, had finished, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the year commences, Starmer appears to have had a kind of a reboot. Maybe even just some downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly appeared to have resulted in better spirits than at the difficult tail end of 2025, a awful annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his allies being unrealistic if they think his political fate are about to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The harsh truth for the PM is that a significant number of his party members think he's ineffective at his job. Several of them would sooner gamble and get him out in 2026.

However Starmer was dismissing such talk when we spoke on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he told me he'd be "judged at the general election", insisting no one would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the optimal path of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 could be for Labour to change its leader.

"We are in the fight of our lifetime and I aim to guide the party," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The problem for the PM is that he will be judged well ahead of then – in a mega set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to contend, maybe too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But even though he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would step down, even if one of his MPs challenged him for the job, should those elections be very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to account for his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was naturally eager for things to get better. He tried to persuade me, and the nation, that this year would be distinct.

The economic situation would strengthen in the face of rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the government enacted during their initial turbulent year began to bear fruit.

• He pledged to close asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he wouldn't set a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the caveat that it wasn't a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western partners were now discussing how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His core message is that in 2026 the country will "turn the corner".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have communicated with more energy than observed from him for a while – more relaxed, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of facing demands from various quarters for a more decisive strategy, with much more political vision, more dynamism, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political trouble, does he need a new narrative?

No government, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's problems are not just because governing is challenging, but because he and his colleagues have erred, even in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when past remarks he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer blamed "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting clear political dangers as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president entails a new jeopardy after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the idea he would be comfortable with these events seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but the public "simply haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Critics called for him to denounce it prior to we spoke. And the government is expected to face further scrutiny to give an explicit view in Parliament in the coming days.

There has also long been bubbling tension in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's heading in that direction, but his new specific plan to integrate further with the European trading bloc – the vast economic European trading zone – will likely trigger howls that he is breaking his promise never to try to overturn the results that followed Brexit.

A commitment to align with more of the single market will please some on his backbenches, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to