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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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